Columbia, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

810
FXUS63 KLSX 060552
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1152 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures fluctuate within a few degrees of normal (low to
  mid- 40s) through the weekend before a notable warmup early next
  week.

- Precipitation chances are virtually zero until the middle of
  next week, when multiple chances (up to 40%) for rain take aim
  at the region through the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Mid-level stratus persists at this hour across east-
central/southeast Missouri and most of Illinois amidst
northwesterly cyclonic flow aloft. This cloud cover, combined with
stronger southwest surface flow in central Missouri ahead of an
approaching Pacific cold front, led to a stark difference in
temperatures from west to east today. Those in central Missouri
enjoyed temperatures cracking 50 degrees with mostly clear skies,
while south-central Illinois did not warm above freezing. That
front, currently in southern Iowa, will continue its march
southeast through our region tonight. Nearly all available
guidance is devoid of any cold air advection with this boundary,
so the only real effect it will have on our sensible weather is
strengthening northwest winds (gusting to 30mph at times) by mid-
morning Friday. While some post-frontal low clouds introduce a bit
of uncertainty on exact temperatures, we very likely (80%+) will
enjoy highs as warm or warmer than today. With little moisture and
meager upper-level forcing, this front will pass us by with no
precipitation.

Another cold front is evident in all available guidance right behind
this first one, entering northern Missouri some time late Friday
afternoon and more rapidly advancing south. While we still expect no
precipitation with the front, cold air advection is more impressive
in this case. As a result, temperatures Friday night into Saturday
are poised to fall several degrees below freezing yet again. This
cold advection regime stays put on Saturday for the most part,
keeping high temperatures fairly cool areawide amidst high surface
pressure. Highs look particularly cool along and east of the
Mississippi River, while further west the return flow from the
surface ridge may allow temperatures to settle into the 40s during
the late afternoon. With more established warm advection overhead by
sunset Saturday, a slow, persistent warmup will take hold going into
the next calendar week.

MRB

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

By Sunday, a strong (90th climatological percentile) and broad mid-
level ridge will be well-established across the Upper Midwest,
promoting a gradual but welcomed warming trend locally. While highs
Sunday feature some modest uncertainty surrounding the surface
ridge`s exit, Monday and Tuesday will likely (90%+ chance) feature
well-above-normal temperatures. Tuesday will likely be the day with
the most widespread warmth, when nearly all of eastern Missouri and
western Illinois will reach the 60s. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance is
uniformly showing a few shortwaves across southern Canada and the
northwestern CONUS that represent a return to a slightly more active
pattern starting Wednesday.

While there are differences evident amidst the ensemble guidance
regarding these shortwaves` evolution and interaction with each
other, they all result in an erosion of the anomalous ridge aloft
that shunts a baroclinic zone south across the region. The varied
solutions surrounding the shortwave also translate to uncertainty in
where this boundary will be, but most guidance does have it south of
the forecast area. This scenario exposes us to somewhat cooler air,
which would be closer to mid-February normals, and shortwave
impulses bringing a few chances for rain through into the weekend.
Little can be said regarding timing or amounts, but between
transient forcing and meager moisture/instability evident in any
ensemble guidance, any hazardous weather looks far-fetched through
Friday. This brief return to near-normal from Wednesday into Friday
appears short-lived, with CIPS Extended Analogs from Saint Louis
University and CPC 8-14 Temperature Outlooks suggesting high
probabilities for above-normal temperatures returning.

MRB

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Surface winds are light and southwesterly, with the exception of
river valley locations that have been calm and variable under a
mostly clear sky. There is an areawide threat for low-level wind
shear early Friday morning due to a strong northwesterly low-level
jet (>45kts) that will move overhead with the passage of a cold
front. The cold front will pass through from northwest to southeast
at the surface Friday morning leading to northwesterly winds that
will increase in strength with gusts of 25-30kts during the day on
Friday. Behind the front, low-level moisture will be on the increase
from the north which could lead to some MVFR ceilings on Friday,
first at KUIN and later at the St. Louis metro terminals, with the
best chance for these MVFR ceilings to occur at KUIN. Winds are
forecasted to relax around sunset Friday evening becoming light and
increasingly northerly.

Peine/Elmore

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX